As of June 17, 2025, Analizy Online SA's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $24.56 to $45.02 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $38.54 | +72.0% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $31.09 | +38.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $29.85 | +33.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $24.56 | +9.6% |
| Earnings Power Value | $45.02 | +101.0% |
Is Analizy Online SA (AOL.WA) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $22.40, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Analizy Online SA's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 5.5% | 6.0% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.3% | 7.3% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.43 | 0.64 |
| Cost of equity | 8.2% | 11.2% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Tax rate | 19.6% | 21.3% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0 | 0 |
| After-tax WACC | 8.2% | 11.2% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $31 | $37M | 69.9% |
| 10-Year Growth | $39 | $46M | 52.7% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $34 | $40M | 72.7% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $41 | $49M | 56.1% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $5M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 11.2% - 8.2% |
| Enterprise Value | $45M - $61M |
| Net Debt | $(1)M |
| Equity Value | $46M - $62M |
| Outstanding Shares | 1M |
| Fair Value | $38 - $52 |
| Selected Fair Value | $45.02 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $27M |
| Enterprise Value | $26M |
| Trailing P/E | 10.99 |
| Forward P/E | 10.48 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 9.00 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 656.71% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 10.76% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.00 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $11.56 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $7.77 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $5.97 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $3.68 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $4.50 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $33.49 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Analizy Online SA's weighted average intrinsic value is $33.49, which is approximately 49.5% above the current market price of $22.40.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Analizy Online SA is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.