What is AOI.TO's Intrinsic value?

Africa Oil Corp (AOI.TO) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, Africa Oil Corp's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $0.00 to $0.00 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside

Is Africa Oil Corp (AOI.TO) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $1.85, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Africa Oil Corp's intrinsic value, including:

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.2% 3.7%
Equity market risk premium 5.1% 6.1%
Adjusted beta 1.3 1.37
Cost of equity 9.8% 12.5%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 25.9% 26.5%
Debt/Equity ratio 0 0
After-tax WACC 9.7% 12.5%

Valuation Methods

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $1250M
Enterprise Value $1250M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 0.00
Current Dividend Yield 135.49%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.00

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Weighted Average 100% $0.00

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Africa Oil Corp's intrinsic value is $0.00, which is approximately 100.0% below the current market price of $1.85.

Key investment considerations:

  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.00)

Given these factors, we believe Africa Oil Corp is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.