What is ANY.BD's Intrinsic value?

ANY Biztonsagi Nyomda Nyrt (ANY.BD) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 17, 2025, ANY Biztonsagi Nyomda Nyrt's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $3219.55 to $8937.19 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $8937.19 +5.4%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $6293.00 -25.8%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $6116.55 -27.9%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $7003.38 -17.4%
Earnings Power Value $3219.55 -62.0%

Is ANY Biztonsagi Nyomda Nyrt (ANY.BD) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $8480.00, the stock appears to be moderately overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate ANY Biztonsagi Nyomda Nyrt's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 6.4% 6.9%
Equity market risk premium 7.9% 8.9%
Adjusted beta 0.38 0.42
Cost of equity 9.4% 11.2%
Cost of debt 4.4% 7.0%
Tax rate 19.4% 20.1%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.1 0.1
After-tax WACC 8.9% 10.6%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 9.7% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $70,503 (FY12-2024) to $146,241 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 12% to 12%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 6% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $6,293 $102,220M 70.1%
10-Year Growth $8,937 $141,327M 54.6%
5-Year EBITDA $5,709 $93,579M 67.4%
10-Year EBITDA $7,771 $124,084M 48.2%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 10.3%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $6116.55 (-27.9% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 11.2% (Low) to 9.4% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $4,614 to $9,393
  • Selected fair value: $7003.38 (-17.4% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $5,487M
Discount Rate (WACC) 10.6% - 8.9%
Enterprise Value $51,608M - $61,919M
Net Debt $9,146M
Equity Value $42,462M - $52,772M
Outstanding Shares 15M
Fair Value $2,871 - $3,568
Selected Fair Value $3219.55

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $125419M
Enterprise Value $134566M
Trailing P/E 12.67
Forward P/E 14.13
Trailing EV/EBITDA 5.25
Current Dividend Yield 497.42%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 384.92%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.10

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $2681.16
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $1573.25
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $1223.31
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $1050.51
Earnings Power Value 10% $321.96
Weighted Average 100% $6850.18

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, ANY Biztonsagi Nyomda Nyrt's weighted average intrinsic value is $6850.18, which is approximately 19.2% below the current market price of $8480.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (12% to 12% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.10)
  • Historical dividend growth of 384.92%

Given these factors, we believe ANY Biztonsagi Nyomda Nyrt is currently moderately overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.