As of May 23, 2025, Antofagasta PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $107.36 to $1056.50 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $1056.50 | -39.7% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $942.44 | -46.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $961.28 | -45.1% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $595.28 | -66.0% |
| Earnings Power Value | $107.36 | -93.9% |
Is Antofagasta PLC (ANTO.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $1752.50, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Antofagasta PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.96 | 1.15 |
| Cost of equity | 9.8% | 13.0% |
| Cost of debt | 4.2% | 5.2% |
| Tax rate | 34.1% | 36.0% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| After-tax WACC | 8.4% | 11.1% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $1,252 | $16,334M | 66.5% |
| 10-Year Growth | $1,403 | $17,856M | 48.0% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $1,876 | $22,610M | 75.8% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $1,915 | $22,996M | 59.6% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $496M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 11.1% - 8.4% |
| Enterprise Value | $4,468M - $5,910M |
| Net Debt | $3,756M |
| Equity Value | $712M - $2,153M |
| Outstanding Shares | 10M |
| Fair Value | $71 - $214 |
| Selected Fair Value | $107.36 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $17609M |
| Enterprise Value | $20437M |
| Trailing P/E | 28.20 |
| Forward P/E | 16.71 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 5.65 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 130.64% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 24.72% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.24 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $316.95 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $235.61 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $192.26 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $89.29 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $10.74 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $844.85 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Antofagasta PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $844.85, which is approximately 51.8% below the current market price of $1752.50.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Antofagasta PLC is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.