What is ANF's DCF valuation?

Abercrombie & Fitch Co (ANF) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of April 3, 2026, Abercrombie & Fitch Co has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $225.06 per share. With the current market price at $92.25, this represents a potential upside of 144.0%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $194.09
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $225.06
Potential Upside (5-year) 110.4%
Potential Upside (10-year) 144.0%
Discount Rate (WACC) 5.8% - 8.6%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Revenue is projected to grow from $5266 million in 01-2026 to $8176 million by 01-2036, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.5%.

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
01-2026 5266 6%
01-2027 5526 5%
01-2028 5692 3%
01-2029 5990 5%
01-2030 6356 6%
01-2031 6732 6%
01-2032 7037 5%
01-2033 7413 5%
01-2034 7642 3%
01-2035 8015 5%
01-2036 8176 2%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from 10% in 01-2026 to 10% by 01-2036, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
01-2026 515 10%
01-2027 540 10%
01-2028 557 10%
01-2029 586 10%
01-2030 622 10%
01-2031 658 10%
01-2032 688 10%
01-2033 725 10%
01-2034 747 10%
01-2035 784 10%
01-2036 800 10%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $141 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
01-2027 156
01-2028 172
01-2029 177
01-2030 186
01-2031 192
01-2032 202

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 8
Days Inventory 111
Days Payables 70

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
2027 889 216 175 (7) 504
2028 928 222 181 22 503
2029 973 234 190 22 527
2030 1030 248 202 20 560
2031 1086 263 214 28 581

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 5.8% - 8.6%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 0.0% - 1.0%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 5.5x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 194.09 110.4%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 225.06 144.0%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 152.80 65.6%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 186.50 102.2%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $8,141M
  • 10-Year Model: $9,562M

Investment Conclusion

Is Abercrombie & Fitch Co (ANF) a buy or a sell? Abercrombie & Fitch Co is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Abercrombie & Fitch Co (ANF) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 144.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Steady revenue growth (4.5% CAGR)

Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $92.25.