As of September 10, 2025, Amazon.com Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $339.15 per share. With the current market price at $238.24, this represents a potential upside of 42.4%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $250.53 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $339.15 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 5.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 42.4% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.1% - 9.4% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $637959 million in 12-2024 to $1323809 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 637959 | 11% |
| 12-2025 | 708085 | 11% |
| 12-2026 | 796652 | 13% |
| 12-2027 | 870515 | 9% |
| 12-2028 | 952840 | 9% |
| 12-2029 | 1030955 | 8% |
| 12-2030 | 1081081 | 5% |
| 12-2031 | 1135135 | 5% |
| 12-2032 | 1197125 | 5% |
| 12-2033 | 1256981 | 5% |
| 12-2034 | 1323809 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 9% in 12-2024 to 21% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 59349 | 9% |
| 12-2025 | 81535 | 12% |
| 12-2026 | 108474 | 14% |
| 12-2027 | 135910 | 16% |
| 12-2028 | 166833 | 18% |
| 12-2029 | 199085 | 19% |
| 12-2030 | 212466 | 20% |
| 12-2031 | 226936 | 20% |
| 12-2032 | 243345 | 20% |
| 12-2033 | 259687 | 21% |
| 12-2034 | 277847 | 21% |
with a 5-year average of $60113 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 12% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 68501 |
| 12-2026 | 74760 |
| 12-2027 | 82212 |
| 12-2028 | 93756 |
| 12-2029 | 101058 |
| 12-2030 | 109705 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 29 |
| Days Inventory | 41 |
| Days Payables | 103 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 81058 | 6364 | 41040 | 4567 | 29087 |
| 2026 | 199437 | 16934 | 92346 | 814 | 89344 |
| 2027 | 238541 | 21217 | 100908 | 2255 | 114161 |
| 2028 | 285761 | 26044 | 110451 | 5397 | 143869 |
| 2029 | 330277 | 31079 | 119505 | 3542 | 176150 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 250.53 | 5.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 339.15 | 42.4% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 289.80 | 21.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 355.76 | 49.3% |
Is Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) a buy or a sell? Amazon.com Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 42.4%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $238.24.