What is AMTY's Intrinsic value?

Amerityre Corp (AMTY) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 13, 2025, Amerityre Corp's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $0.05 to $0.07 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $0.07 +61.1%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $0.07 +57.8%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $0.05 +23.2%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $0.07 +74.0%
Earnings Power Value $0.05 +30.3%

Is Amerityre Corp (AMTY) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $0.04, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Amerityre Corp's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 0.54 0.64
Cost of equity 6.4% 8.5%
Cost of debt 4.0% 4.5%
Tax rate 26.2% 27.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.02 0.02
After-tax WACC 6.3% 8.4%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 7.3% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $6 (FY06-2022) to $10 (FY06-2032)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 7% to 5%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 2% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $0 $4M 74.1%
10-Year Growth $0 $4M 52.5%
5-Year EBITDA $0 $3M 65.7%
10-Year EBITDA $0 $4M 47.3%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 7.4%
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5%
  • Fair value: $0.05 (23.2% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 8.5% (Low) to 6.4% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.0% (Low) to 1.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $0 to $0
  • Selected fair value: $0.07 (74.0% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $0M
Discount Rate (WACC) 8.4% - 6.3%
Enterprise Value $3M - $4M
Net Debt $(1)M
Equity Value $4M - $5M
Outstanding Shares 107M
Fair Value $0 - $0
Selected Fair Value $0.05

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $3M
Enterprise Value $2M
Trailing P/E 7.19
Forward P/E 9.39
Trailing EV/EBITDA 4.85
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.02

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $0.02
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $0.02
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $0.01
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $0.01
Earnings Power Value 10% $0.01
Weighted Average 100% $0.06

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Amerityre Corp's weighted average intrinsic value is $0.06, which is approximately 51.5% above the current market price of $0.04.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (7% to 5% margin)
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.02)

Given these factors, we believe Amerityre Corp is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.