As of May 23, 2025, Amgen Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $358.68 per share. With the current market price at $271.90, this represents a potential upside of 31.9%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $302.39 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $358.68 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 11.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 31.9% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.9% - 9.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $33424 million in 12-2024 to $61095 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 33424 | 19% |
| 12-2025 | 35993 | 8% |
| 12-2026 | 38760 | 8% |
| 12-2027 | 41239 | 6% |
| 12-2028 | 44409 | 8% |
| 12-2029 | 46805 | 5% |
| 12-2030 | 50095 | 7% |
| 12-2031 | 51097 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 54487 | 7% |
| 12-2033 | 58598 | 8% |
| 12-2034 | 61095 | 4% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 12% in 12-2024 to 21% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 4090 | 12% |
| 12-2025 | 5019 | 14% |
| 12-2026 | 6033 | 16% |
| 12-2027 | 7054 | 17% |
| 12-2028 | 8246 | 19% |
| 12-2029 | 9342 | 20% |
| 12-2030 | 10131 | 20% |
| 12-2031 | 10467 | 20% |
| 12-2032 | 11303 | 21% |
| 12-2033 | 12306 | 21% |
| 12-2034 | 12985 | 21% |
with a 5-year average of $926 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 1043 |
| 12-2026 | 1124 |
| 12-2027 | 1210 |
| 12-2028 | 1282 |
| 12-2029 | 1372 |
| 12-2030 | 1466 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 82 |
| Days Inventory | 297 |
| Days Payables | 71 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 7690 | 478 | 894 | 3267 | 3051 |
| 2026 | 11751 | 766 | 1284 | 1405 | 8297 |
| 2027 | 13232 | 895 | 1366 | (1,057) | 12029 |
| 2028 | 14960 | 1046 | 1471 | 1841 | 10602 |
| 2029 | 16522 | 1185 | 1550 | 490 | 13297 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 302.39 | 11.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 358.68 | 31.9% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 181.93 | -33.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 253.19 | -6.9% |
Is Amgen Inc (AMGN) a buy or a sell? Amgen Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Amgen Inc (AMGN) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 31.9%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $271.90.