As of August 2, 2025, Dassault Aviation SA's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $90.03 to $199.44 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $135.18 | -49.9% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $147.45 | -45.4% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $199.44 | -26.1% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $197.96 | -26.7% |
| Earnings Power Value | $90.03 | -66.7% |
Is Dassault Aviation SA (AM.PA) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $270.00, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Dassault Aviation SA's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.0% | 3.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.8% | 6.8% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.78 | 0.82 |
| Cost of equity | 7.5% | 9.6% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 16.9% | 17.8% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| After-tax WACC | 7.5% | 9.5% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $147 | $9,435M | 81.5% |
| 10-Year Growth | $135 | $8,473M | 59.9% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $173 | $11,477M | 84.8% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $165 | $10,809M | 68.5% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $414M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.5% - 7.5% |
| Enterprise Value | $4,333M - $5,533M |
| Net Debt | $(2,125)M |
| Equity Value | $6,458M - $7,658M |
| Outstanding Shares | 78M |
| Fair Value | $82 - $98 |
| Selected Fair Value | $90.03 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $21168M |
| Enterprise Value | $19043M |
| Trailing P/E | 27.07 |
| Forward P/E | 21.97 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 10.70 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 174.42% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 9.70% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.01 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $40.55 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $36.86 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $39.89 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $29.69 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $9.00 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $156.00 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Dassault Aviation SA's intrinsic value is $156.00, which is approximately 42.2% below the current market price of $270.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Dassault Aviation SA is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.