As of May 22, 2025, Dassault Aviation SA's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $77.18 to $209.37 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $192.12 | -38.3% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $209.37 | -32.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $195.56 | -37.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $185.45 | -40.4% |
| Earnings Power Value | $77.18 | -75.2% |
Is Dassault Aviation SA (AM.PA) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $311.40, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Dassault Aviation SA's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.0% | 3.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.8% | 6.8% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.85 | 0.9 |
| Cost of equity | 7.9% | 10.1% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 16.9% | 17.8% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| After-tax WACC | 7.9% | 10.0% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $209 | $15,041M | 74.8% |
| 10-Year Growth | $192 | $13,688M | 53.3% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $166 | $11,639M | 67.4% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $176 | $12,457M | 48.6% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $414M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.0% - 7.9% |
| Enterprise Value | $4,121M - $5,234M |
| Net Debt | $(1,374)M |
| Equity Value | $5,494M - $6,608M |
| Outstanding Shares | 78M |
| Fair Value | $70 - $84 |
| Selected Fair Value | $77.18 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $24414M |
| Enterprise Value | $23040M |
| Trailing P/E | 26.43 |
| Forward P/E | 23.46 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 7.45 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 109.14% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 9.70% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.01 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $57.64 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $52.34 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $39.11 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $27.82 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $7.72 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $184.63 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Dassault Aviation SA's weighted average intrinsic value is $184.63, which is approximately 40.7% below the current market price of $311.40.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Dassault Aviation SA is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.