As of May 22, 2025, Dassault Aviation SA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $192.12 per share. With the current market price at $311.40, this represents a potential upside of -38.3%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $209.37 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $192.12 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -32.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -38.3% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.9% - 10.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $6240 million in 12-2024 to $8092 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 6240 | 30% |
| 12-2025 | 6581 | 5% |
| 12-2026 | 6713 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 6847 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 6984 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 7124 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 7266 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 7489 | 3% |
| 12-2032 | 7778 | 4% |
| 12-2033 | 7933 | 2% |
| 12-2034 | 8092 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 15% in 12-2024 to 20% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 924 | 15% |
| 12-2025 | 1040 | 16% |
| 12-2026 | 1129 | 17% |
| 12-2027 | 1220 | 18% |
| 12-2028 | 1312 | 19% |
| 12-2029 | 1406 | 20% |
| 12-2030 | 1434 | 20% |
| 12-2031 | 1478 | 20% |
| 12-2032 | 1535 | 20% |
| 12-2033 | 1566 | 20% |
| 12-2034 | 1597 | 20% |
with a 5-year average of $302 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 5% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 277 |
| 12-2026 | 313 |
| 12-2027 | 349 |
| 12-2028 | 354 |
| 12-2029 | 359 |
| 12-2030 | 366 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 68 |
| Days Inventory | 525 |
| Days Payables | 112 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1231 | 212 | 345 | (933) | 1607 |
| 2026 | 1368 | 230 | 352 | 763 | 23 |
| 2027 | 1508 | 249 | 359 | (74) | 975 |
| 2028 | 1617 | 267 | 366 | (158) | 1141 |
| 2029 | 1729 | 287 | 373 | 178 | 891 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 209.37 | -32.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 192.12 | -38.3% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 165.98 | -46.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 176.41 | -43.4% |
Is Dassault Aviation SA (AM.PA) a buy or a sell? Dassault Aviation SA is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Dassault Aviation SA (AM.PA) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -38.3%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $311.40.