What is ALYI's DCF valuation?

Alternet Systems Inc (ALYI) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 17, 2025, Alternet Systems Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.00, this represents a potential upside of -58460.5%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $0.00
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $0.00
Potential Upside (5-year) -51029.6%
Potential Upside (10-year) -58460.5%
Discount Rate (WACC) 4.7% - 5.6%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
12-2015 0 -
12-2016 0 10%
12-2017 0 7%
12-2018 0 9%
12-2019 0 4%
12-2020 0 4%
12-2021 0 7%
12-2022 0 6%
12-2023 0 10%
12-2024 0 8%
12-2025 0 6%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from -5198% in 12-2015 to -148% by 12-2025, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
12-2015 (1) -5198%
12-2016 (1) -83%
12-2017 (1) -89%
12-2018 (1) -97%
12-2019 (1) -100%
12-2020 (1) -104%
12-2021 (1) -111%
12-2022 (1) -118%
12-2023 (1) -129%
12-2024 (1) -140%
12-2025 (1) -148%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 5% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
12-2016 0
12-2017 0
12-2018 0
12-2019 0
12-2020 0
12-2021 0

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 30
Days Inventory 0
Days Payables 0

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
3M/2016 (0) (0) 0 0 (1)
2017 (1) (0) 0 0 (1)
2018 (1) (0) 0 0 (1)
2019 (1) (0) 0 (0) (1)
2020 (1) (0) 0 0 (1)

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 4.7% - 5.6%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 3.0% - 4.4%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 5.5x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -51029.6%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -58460.5%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 NaN%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 NaN%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $(59)M
  • 10-Year Model: $(68)M

Investment Conclusion

Is Alternet Systems Inc (ALYI) a buy or a sell? Alternet Systems Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Alternet Systems Inc (ALYI) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -58460.5%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Expanding profit margins (from -5198% to -148%)
  • Strong free cash flow generation

Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.00.