As of May 23, 2025, Wedia SA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $9.05 per share. With the current market price at $30.80, this represents a potential upside of -70.6%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $17.95 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $9.05 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -41.7% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -70.6% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.1% - 7.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $14 million in 12-2023 to $20 million by 12-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 14 | 23% |
| 12-2024 | 14 | 1% |
| 12-2025 | 15 | 6% |
| 12-2026 | 16 | 6% |
| 12-2027 | 16 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 17 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 17 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 18 | 5% |
| 12-2031 | 18 | 4% |
| 12-2032 | 20 | 6% |
| 12-2033 | 20 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 0% in 12-2023 to 0% by 12-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | (0) | 0% |
| 12-2024 | 0 | 0% |
| 12-2025 | 0 | 0% |
| 12-2026 | 0 | 0% |
| 12-2027 | 0 | 0% |
| 12-2028 | 0 | 0% |
| 12-2029 | 0 | 0% |
| 12-2030 | 0 | 0% |
| 12-2031 | 0 | 0% |
| 12-2032 | 0 | 0% |
| 12-2033 | 0 | 0% |
with a 5-year average of $2 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 12% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 2 |
| 12-2025 | 2 |
| 12-2026 | 2 |
| 12-2027 | 2 |
| 12-2028 | 2 |
| 12-2029 | 2 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 45 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 70 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2024 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | (0) |
| 2025 | 2 | 0 | 2 | (0) | 1 |
| 2026 | 3 | 0 | 2 | (0) | 1 |
| 2027 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2028 | 2 | 0 | 2 | (0) | 0 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 17.95 | -41.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 9.05 | -70.6% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 11.23 | -63.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 10.10 | -67.2% |
Is Wedia SA (ALWED.PA) a buy or a sell? Wedia SA is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Wedia SA (ALWED.PA) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -70.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $30.80.