As of December 15, 2025, Evolis SA's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $38.50 to $69.08 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $69.08 | +57.9% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $56.52 | +29.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $53.03 | +21.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $55.92 | +27.8% |
| Earnings Power Value | $38.50 | -12.0% |
Is Evolis SA (ALTVO.PA) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $43.75, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Evolis SA's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.0% | 3.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.8% | 6.8% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.55 | 0.67 |
| Cost of equity | 6.2% | 8.6% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 25.3% | 28.8% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.2% | 8.5% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $57 | $272M | 79.2% |
| 10-Year Growth | $69 | $337M | 64.7% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $42 | $195M | 71.0% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $54 | $258M | 53.7% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $13M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.5% - 6.2% |
| Enterprise Value | $150M - $206M |
| Net Debt | $(23)M |
| Equity Value | $173M - $229M |
| Outstanding Shares | 5M |
| Fair Value | $33 - $44 |
| Selected Fair Value | $38.50 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $228M |
| Enterprise Value | $205M |
| Trailing P/E | 14.60 |
| Forward P/E | 15.04 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 6.05 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 516.43% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 18.01% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.01 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $20.72 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $14.13 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $10.61 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $8.39 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $3.85 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $57.70 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Evolis SA's intrinsic value is $57.70, which is approximately 31.9% above the current market price of $43.75.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Evolis SA is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.