As of May 23, 2025, TronicS Microsystems SA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $7.19 per share. With the current market price at $4.40, this represents a potential upside of 63.4%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $3.94 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $7.19 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -10.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 63.4% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.6% - 8.5% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $14 million in 03-2024 to $32 million by 03-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2024 | 14 | 6% |
| 03-2025 | 15 | 10% |
| 03-2026 | 16 | 9% |
| 03-2027 | 18 | 8% |
| 03-2028 | 20 | 11% |
| 03-2029 | 21 | 9% |
| 03-2030 | 23 | 8% |
| 03-2031 | 25 | 9% |
| 03-2032 | 27 | 8% |
| 03-2033 | 30 | 9% |
| 03-2034 | 32 | 8% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 7% in 03-2024 to 18% by 03-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2024 | 1 | 7% |
| 03-2025 | 1 | 9% |
| 03-2026 | 2 | 11% |
| 03-2027 | 2 | 13% |
| 03-2028 | 3 | 15% |
| 03-2029 | 4 | 17% |
| 03-2030 | 4 | 17% |
| 03-2031 | 4 | 17% |
| 03-2032 | 5 | 18% |
| 03-2033 | 5 | 18% |
| 03-2034 | 6 | 18% |
with a 5-year average of $1 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 16% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 03-2025 | 2 |
| 03-2026 | 2 |
| 03-2027 | 2 |
| 03-2028 | 2 |
| 03-2029 | 3 |
| 03-2030 | 3 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 73 |
| Days Inventory | 277 |
| Days Payables | 91 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | (1) |
| 2026 | 4 | 0 | 3 | (0) | 1 |
| 2027 | 4 | 0 | 3 | (0) | 2 |
| 2028 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 2029 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 3.94 | -10.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 7.19 | 63.4% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 1.53 | -65.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 3.06 | -30.6% |
Is TronicS Microsystems SA (ALTRO.PA) a buy or a sell? TronicS Microsystems SA is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, TronicS Microsystems SA (ALTRO.PA) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 63.4%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $4.40.