As of June 12, 2025, Blockchain Group SA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $5.15, this represents a potential upside of -114.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -121.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -114.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 4.8% - 6.4% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $14 million in 12-2024 to $46 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 12.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 14 | 32% |
| 12-2025 | 15 | 6% |
| 12-2026 | 18 | 21% |
| 12-2027 | 21 | 17% |
| 12-2028 | 24 | 17% |
| 12-2029 | 27 | 14% |
| 12-2030 | 31 | 13% |
| 12-2031 | 35 | 13% |
| 12-2032 | 39 | 12% |
| 12-2033 | 43 | 9% |
| 12-2034 | 46 | 9% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 10% in 12-2024 to 3% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 1 | 10% |
| 12-2025 | (1) | -4% |
| 12-2026 | (0) | -2% |
| 12-2027 | (0) | -1% |
| 12-2028 | 0 | 0% |
| 12-2029 | 0 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 1 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 1 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 1 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 1 | 3% |
| 12-2034 | 1 | 3% |
with a 5-year average of $3 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 15% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 3 |
| 12-2026 | 3 |
| 12-2027 | 2 |
| 12-2028 | 3 |
| 12-2029 | 3 |
| 12-2030 | 4 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 110 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 191 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2 | (0) | 2 | 1 | (1) |
| 2026 | 2 | (0) | 3 | 0 | (1) |
| 2027 | 2 | (0) | 3 | 0 | (1) |
| 2028 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | (2) |
| 2029 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | (1) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -121.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -114.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Blockchain Group SA (ALTBG.PA) a buy or a sell? Blockchain Group SA is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Blockchain Group SA (ALTBG.PA) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -114.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $5.15.