What is ALS.L's DCF valuation?

Altus Strategies PLC (ALS.L) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 22, 2025, Altus Strategies PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $46.00, this represents a potential upside of -370.2%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $0.00
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $0.00
Potential Upside (5-year) -336.3%
Potential Upside (10-year) -370.2%
Discount Rate (WACC) 6.7% - 9.5%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
12-2021 0 12%
12-2022 0 5%
12-2023 0 3%
12-2024 0 2%
12-2025 0 5%
12-2026 0 4%
12-2027 0 2%
12-2028 0 2%
12-2029 0 2%
12-2030 0 2%
12-2031 0 2%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from -1945% in 12-2021 to -661% by 12-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
12-2021 (6) -1945%
12-2022 (5) -525%
12-2023 (5) -541%
12-2024 (6) -552%
12-2025 (6) -577%
12-2026 (6) -599%
12-2027 (6) -611%
12-2028 (6) -623%
12-2029 (6) -635%
12-2030 (6) -648%
12-2031 (7) -661%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $3 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1060% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
12-2022 4
12-2023 5
12-2024 5
12-2025 6
12-2026 4
12-2027 4

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 716
Days Inventory 0
Days Payables 0

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
9M/2022 (2) (1) 3 1 (5)
2023 (2) (1) 4 (0) (4)
2024 (2) (1) 4 (0) (4)
2025 (1) (1) 4 0 (4)
2026 (4) (1) 4 (0) (6)

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 6.7% - 9.5%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 4.6x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -336.3%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -370.2%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $(103)M
  • 10-Year Model: $(120)M

Investment Conclusion

Is Altus Strategies PLC (ALS.L) a buy or a sell? Altus Strategies PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Altus Strategies PLC (ALS.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -370.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Expanding profit margins (from -1945% to -661%)
  • Strong free cash flow generation

Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $46.00.