What is ALRT's Intrinsic value?

ALR Technologies Inc (ALRT) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 21, 2025, ALR Technologies Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $4.29 to $4.29 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $4.29 +6764.0%

Is ALR Technologies Inc (ALRT) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $0.06, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate ALR Technologies Inc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.2% 4.7%
Equity market risk premium 5.0% 6.0%
Adjusted beta 0.06 0.34
Cost of equity 4.5% 7.2%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 26.2% 27.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 2.01 2.01
After-tax WACC 4.0% 4.8%

Valuation Methods

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 5.9%
  • Long-term growth rate: 4.0%
  • Fair value: $-2.00 (-3305.2% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 7.2% (Low) to 4.5% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0% (Low) to 5.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $(1) to $9
  • Selected fair value: $4.29 (6764.0% from current price)

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $10M
Enterprise Value $30M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 0.00
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 2.01

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 100% $0.64
Weighted Average 100% $4.29

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, ALR Technologies Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $4.29, which is approximately 6764.0% above the current market price of $0.06.

Key investment considerations:

  • Overall financial health and market position

Given these factors, we believe ALR Technologies Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.