As of May 23, 2025, Prodware SA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $51.24 per share. With the current market price at $10.50, this represents a potential upside of 388.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $26.79 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $51.24 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 155.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 388.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.0% - 8.5% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $381 million in 12-2023 to $632 million by 12-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 381 | 102% |
| 12-2024 | 412 | 8% |
| 12-2025 | 421 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 456 | 8% |
| 12-2027 | 473 | 4% |
| 12-2028 | 498 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 515 | 3% |
| 12-2030 | 555 | 8% |
| 12-2031 | 580 | 5% |
| 12-2032 | 612 | 6% |
| 12-2033 | 632 | 3% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -6% in 12-2023 to 6% by 12-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | (24) | -6% |
| 12-2024 | 26 | 6% |
| 12-2025 | 27 | 6% |
| 12-2026 | 29 | 6% |
| 12-2027 | 30 | 6% |
| 12-2028 | 32 | 6% |
| 12-2029 | 33 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 36 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 37 | 6% |
| 12-2032 | 39 | 6% |
| 12-2033 | 40 | 6% |
with a 5-year average of $37 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 19% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 45 |
| 12-2025 | 56 |
| 12-2026 | 63 |
| 12-2027 | 73 |
| 12-2028 | 84 |
| 12-2029 | 88 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 101 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 112 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2024 | 46 | 2 | 38 | 9 | (3) |
| 2025 | 105 | 4 | 78 | (18) | 41 |
| 2026 | 116 | 5 | 85 | 10 | 16 |
| 2027 | 128 | 5 | 88 | 3 | 32 |
| 2028 | 142 | 5 | 93 | (2) | 46 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 26.79 | 155.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 51.24 | 388.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 88.57 | 743.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 100.02 | 852.5% |
Is Prodware SA (ALPRO.PA) a buy or a sell? Prodware SA is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Prodware SA (ALPRO.PA) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 388.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $10.50.