As of May 28, 2025, ADL Partner SA's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $20.32 to $44.99 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $37.01 | +38.1% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $35.48 | +32.4% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $20.32 | -24.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $35.83 | +33.7% |
| Earnings Power Value | $44.99 | +67.9% |
Is ADL Partner SA (ALP.PA) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $26.80, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate ADL Partner SA's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 2.6% | 3.1% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.2% | 6.2% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.82 | 0.9 |
| Cost of equity | 6.9% | 9.2% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Tax rate | 33.0% | 34.0% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.1% | 8.0% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $35 | $123M | 77.9% |
| 10-Year Growth | $37 | $129M | 58.6% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $21 | $66M | 58.9% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $26 | $86M | 37.8% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $11M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.0% - 6.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $139M - $183M |
| Net Debt | $(17)M |
| Equity Value | $156M - $200M |
| Outstanding Shares | 4M |
| Fair Value | $39 - $51 |
| Selected Fair Value | $44.99 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $106M |
| Enterprise Value | $89M |
| Trailing P/E | 9.03 |
| Forward P/E | 16.81 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 4.20 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 542.73% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | -18.89% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.24 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $11.10 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $8.87 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $4.06 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $5.37 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $4.50 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $33.91 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, ADL Partner SA's weighted average intrinsic value is $33.91, which is approximately 26.5% above the current market price of $26.80.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe ADL Partner SA is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.