As of May 29, 2025, Omer Decugis & Cie SA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $74.82 per share. With the current market price at $5.06, this represents a potential upside of 1378.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $47.42 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $74.82 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 837.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 1378.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.4% - 6.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $247 million in 09-2024 to $516 million by 09-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 09-2024 | 247 | 20% |
| 09-2025 | 274 | 11% |
| 09-2026 | 286 | 5% |
| 09-2027 | 317 | 11% |
| 09-2028 | 347 | 10% |
| 09-2029 | 382 | 10% |
| 09-2030 | 407 | 6% |
| 09-2031 | 428 | 5% |
| 09-2032 | 450 | 5% |
| 09-2033 | 475 | 5% |
| 09-2034 | 516 | 9% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 1% in 09-2024 to 8% by 09-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 09-2024 | 3 | 1% |
| 09-2025 | 7 | 2% |
| 09-2026 | 11 | 4% |
| 09-2027 | 16 | 5% |
| 09-2028 | 23 | 7% |
| 09-2029 | 30 | 8% |
| 09-2030 | 32 | 8% |
| 09-2031 | 33 | 8% |
| 09-2032 | 35 | 8% |
| 09-2033 | 37 | 8% |
| 09-2034 | 40 | 8% |
with a 5-year average of $5 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 09-2025 | 5 |
| 09-2026 | 6 |
| 09-2027 | 8 |
| 09-2028 | 9 |
| 09-2029 | 11 |
| 09-2030 | 12 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 37 |
| Days Inventory | 15 |
| Days Payables | 41 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 6 | (2) |
| 2026 | 21 | 3 | 10 | (1) | 10 |
| 2027 | 29 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 13 |
| 2028 | 38 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 18 |
| 2029 | 49 | 8 | 13 | 1 | 28 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 47.42 | 837.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 74.82 | 1378.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 28.99 | 472.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 46.03 | 809.7% |
Is Omer Decugis & Cie SA (ALODC.PA) a buy or a sell? Omer Decugis & Cie SA is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Omer Decugis & Cie SA (ALODC.PA) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 1378.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $5.06.