What is ALNOV.PA's Intrinsic value?

Novacyt SA (ALNOV.PA) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 8, 2025, Novacyt SA's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $0.03 to $0.03 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Earnings Power Value $0.03 -94.7%

Is Novacyt SA (ALNOV.PA) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $0.55, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Novacyt SA's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.0% 3.5%
Equity market risk premium 5.8% 6.8%
Adjusted beta 0.44 0.66
Cost of equity 5.5% 8.5%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 4.8% 8.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.37 0.37
After-tax WACC 5.3% 7.4%

Valuation Methods

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $(1)M
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.4% - 5.3%
Enterprise Value $(15)M - $(21)M
Net Debt $(20)M
Equity Value $5M - $(1)M
Outstanding Shares 71M
Fair Value $0 - $(0)
Selected Fair Value $0.03

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $39M
Enterprise Value $19M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 8.65
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.37

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Earnings Power Value 100% $0.00
Weighted Average 100% $0.03

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Novacyt SA's weighted average intrinsic value is $0.03, which is approximately 94.7% below the current market price of $0.55.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-240% to -215% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Novacyt SA is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.