What is ALNFT.PA's Intrinsic value?

Adthink SA (ALNFT.PA) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 27, 2025, Adthink SA's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $0.01 to $0.01 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Earnings Power Value $0.01 +1330.2%

Is Adthink SA (ALNFT.PA) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $0.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Adthink SA's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.0% 3.5%
Equity market risk premium 5.8% 6.8%
Adjusted beta 2.63 4.33
Cost of equity 18.3% 33.5%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 3.0% 4.3%
Debt/Equity ratio 13.26 13.26
After-tax WACC 5.8% 6.8%

Valuation Methods

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $0M
Discount Rate (WACC) 6.8% - 5.8%
Enterprise Value $3M - $4M
Net Debt $1M
Equity Value $2M - $3M
Outstanding Shares 314M
Fair Value $0 - $0
Selected Fair Value $0.01

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $0M
Enterprise Value $2M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 6.30
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 13.26

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Earnings Power Value 100% $0.00
Weighted Average 100% $0.01

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Adthink SA's weighted average intrinsic value is $0.01, which is approximately 1330.2% above the current market price of $0.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-65% to -45% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Adthink SA is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.