What is ALNA.L's Intrinsic value?

Alina Holdings PLC (ALNA.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 22, 2025, Alina Holdings PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $15.05 to $15.05 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $15.05 +100.7%

Is Alina Holdings PLC (ALNA.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $7.50, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Alina Holdings PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 0.37 0.41
Cost of equity 6.2% 7.9%
Cost of debt 4.0% 7.0%
Tax rate 19.0% 19.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.34 0.34
After-tax WACC 5.5% 7.3%

Valuation Methods

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 7.0%
  • Long-term growth rate: 4.0%
  • Fair value: $-175.10 (-2434.7% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 7.9% (Low) to 6.2% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0% (Low) to 5.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $5 to $25
  • Selected fair value: $15.05 (100.7% from current price)

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $1M
Enterprise Value $-0M
Trailing P/E 22.07
Forward P/E 22.07
Trailing EV/EBITDA 16.90
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.34

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 100% $2.26
Weighted Average 100% $15.05

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Alina Holdings PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $15.05, which is approximately 100.7% above the current market price of $7.50.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-368% to -122% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Alina Holdings PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.