What is ALMLB.PA's Intrinsic value?

Miliboo SA (ALMLB.PA) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 17, 2025, Miliboo SA's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $1.16 to $20.07 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $6.67 +429.0%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $5.89 +367.2%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $3.59 +184.8%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $20.07 +1493.0%
Earnings Power Value $1.16 -7.8%

Is Miliboo SA (ALMLB.PA) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $1.26, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Miliboo SA's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.0% 3.5%
Equity market risk premium 5.8% 6.8%
Adjusted beta 0.68 0.99
Cost of equity 6.9% 10.7%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 3.6% 6.3%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.47 0.47
After-tax WACC 6.3% 8.8%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 7.5% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $43 (FY04-2024) to $68 (FY04-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 5% to 6%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 2% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $6 $40M 72.7%
10-Year Growth $7 $45M 54.4%
5-Year EBITDA $4 $26M 57.4%
10-Year EBITDA $5 $34M 38.3%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 8.8%
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5%
  • Fair value: $3.59 (184.8% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 10.7% (Low) to 6.9% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.0% (Low) to 1.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $12 to $28
  • Selected fair value: $20.07 (1493.0% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $1M
Discount Rate (WACC) 8.8% - 6.3%
Enterprise Value $6M - $8M
Net Debt $(1)M
Equity Value $7M - $9M
Outstanding Shares 7M
Fair Value $1 - $1
Selected Fair Value $1.16

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $9M
Enterprise Value $8M
Trailing P/E 0.68
Forward P/E 2.91
Trailing EV/EBITDA 5.10
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.47

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $2.00
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $1.47
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $0.72
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $3.01
Earnings Power Value 10% $0.12
Weighted Average 100% $7.32

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Miliboo SA's weighted average intrinsic value is $7.32, which is approximately 480.6% above the current market price of $1.26.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (5% to 6% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Miliboo SA is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.