As of May 23, 2025, 1000mercis SA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $36.64 per share. With the current market price at $30.00, this represents a potential upside of 22.1%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $35.33 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $36.64 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 17.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 22.1% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.3% - 6.3% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $73 million in 12-2023 to $96 million by 12-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.8%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 73 | 5% |
| 12-2024 | 76 | 4% |
| 12-2025 | 77 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 79 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 81 | 3% |
| 12-2028 | 83 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 85 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 88 | 3% |
| 12-2031 | 91 | 4% |
| 12-2032 | 94 | 4% |
| 12-2033 | 96 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 4% in 12-2023 to 3% by 12-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 3 | 4% |
| 12-2024 | 2 | 3% |
| 12-2025 | 2 | 3% |
| 12-2026 | 2 | 3% |
| 12-2027 | 3 | 3% |
| 12-2028 | 3 | 3% |
| 12-2029 | 3 | 3% |
| 12-2030 | 3 | 3% |
| 12-2031 | 3 | 3% |
| 12-2032 | 3 | 3% |
| 12-2033 | 3 | 3% |
with a 5-year average of $2 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 2 |
| 12-2025 | 2 |
| 12-2026 | 2 |
| 12-2027 | 2 |
| 12-2028 | 2 |
| 12-2029 | 2 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 142 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 127 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2024 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 2026 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 2027 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 2028 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 35.33 | 17.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 36.64 | 22.1% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 11.43 | -61.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 16.61 | -44.6% |
Is 1000mercis SA (ALMIL.PA) a buy or a sell? 1000mercis SA is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, 1000mercis SA (ALMIL.PA) appears to be moderately undervalued with upside potential of 22.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a buy at the current market price of $30.00.