As of June 4, 2025, M2i SA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $10.78 per share. With the current market price at $8.45, this represents a potential upside of 27.5%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $9.90 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $10.78 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 17.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 27.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.1% - 6.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $56 million in 12-2024 to $71 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.4%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 56 | 4% |
| 12-2025 | 49 | -13% |
| 12-2026 | 51 | 5% |
| 12-2027 | 54 | 5% |
| 12-2028 | 56 | 4% |
| 12-2029 | 60 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 62 | 4% |
| 12-2031 | 64 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 65 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 67 | 3% |
| 12-2034 | 71 | 6% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 4% in 12-2024 to 4% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 2 | 4% |
| 12-2025 | 2 | 4% |
| 12-2026 | 2 | 4% |
| 12-2027 | 2 | 4% |
| 12-2028 | 2 | 4% |
| 12-2029 | 2 | 4% |
| 12-2030 | 2 | 4% |
| 12-2031 | 2 | 4% |
| 12-2032 | 3 | 4% |
| 12-2033 | 3 | 4% |
| 12-2034 | 3 | 4% |
with a 5-year average of $1 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 1 |
| 12-2026 | 1 |
| 12-2027 | 1 |
| 12-2028 | 1 |
| 12-2029 | 2 |
| 12-2030 | 2 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 26 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 131 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | (1) |
| 2026 | 3 | 0 | 1 | (2) | 4 |
| 2027 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 2028 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 2029 | 4 | 0 | 2 | (1) | 3 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 9.90 | 17.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 10.78 | 27.5% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 7.12 | -15.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 7.81 | -7.6% |
Is M2i SA (ALMII.PA) a buy or a sell? M2i SA is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, M2i SA (ALMII.PA) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 27.5%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $8.45.