As of May 22, 2025, Hoffmann Green Cement Technologies SAS has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $4.70, this represents a potential upside of -327260.3%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -35347.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -327260.3% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.2% - 9.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $6 million in 12-2023 to $5456 million by 12-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 97.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 6 | 172% |
| 12-2024 | 17 | 187% |
| 12-2025 | 46 | 162% |
| 12-2026 | 101 | 121% |
| 12-2027 | 207 | 106% |
| 12-2028 | 405 | 95% |
| 12-2029 | 743 | 84% |
| 12-2030 | 1301 | 75% |
| 12-2031 | 2187 | 68% |
| 12-2032 | 3511 | 61% |
| 12-2033 | 5456 | 55% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -130% in 12-2023 to -86% by 12-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | (8) | -130% |
| 12-2024 | (17) | -96% |
| 12-2025 | (43) | -93% |
| 12-2026 | (92) | -91% |
| 12-2027 | (186) | -89% |
| 12-2028 | (355) | -88% |
| 12-2029 | (648) | -87% |
| 12-2030 | (1,131) | -87% |
| 12-2031 | (1,893) | -87% |
| 12-2032 | (3,028) | -86% |
| 12-2033 | (4,688) | -86% |
with a 5-year average of $9 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 620% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 30 |
| 12-2025 | 86 |
| 12-2026 | 208 |
| 12-2027 | 462 |
| 12-2028 | 962 |
| 12-2029 | 1863 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 344 |
| Days Inventory | 471 |
| Days Payables | 639 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2024 | 5 | (3) | 54 | 4 | (50) |
| 2025 | 36 | (14) | 282 | 28 | (260) |
| 2026 | 101 | (30) | 624 | 38 | (531) |
| 2027 | 247 | (60) | 1287 | 86 | (1,066) |
| 2028 | 553 | (115) | 2511 | 168 | (2,011) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -35347.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -327260.3% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Hoffmann Green Cement Technologies SAS (ALHGR.PA) a buy or a sell? Hoffmann Green Cement Technologies SAS is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Hoffmann Green Cement Technologies SAS (ALHGR.PA) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -327260.3%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $4.70.