As of June 18, 2025, Groupe Guillin SA's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $40.52 to $143.22 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $51.12 | +71.3% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $48.83 | +63.6% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $40.84 | +36.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $40.52 | +35.7% |
| Earnings Power Value | $143.22 | +379.8% |
Is Groupe Guillin SA (ALGIL.PA) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $29.85, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Groupe Guillin SA's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.0% | 3.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.8% | 6.8% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.75 | 0.8 |
| Cost of equity | 7.3% | 9.5% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 25.4% | 25.8% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.6% | 8.3% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $49 | $960M | 73.0% |
| 10-Year Growth | $51 | $1,003M | 52.5% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $38 | $753M | 65.5% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $44 | $867M | 45.0% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $199M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.3% - 6.6% |
| Enterprise Value | $2,399M - $3,020M |
| Net Debt | $55M |
| Equity Value | $2,344M - $2,964M |
| Outstanding Shares | 19M |
| Fair Value | $126 - $160 |
| Selected Fair Value | $143.22 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $553M |
| Enterprise Value | $609M |
| Trailing P/E | 7.95 |
| Forward P/E | 7.68 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 4.85 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 369.81% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 7.47% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.25 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $15.34 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $12.21 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $8.17 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $6.08 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $14.32 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $56.11 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Groupe Guillin SA's weighted average intrinsic value is $56.11, which is approximately 88.0% above the current market price of $29.85.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Groupe Guillin SA is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.