As of May 23, 2025, Advicenne SA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $1.72, this represents a potential upside of -2003.6%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -1577.5% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -2003.6% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.2% - 8.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $3 million in 12-2023 to $10 million by 12-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 12.8%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 3 | 26% |
| 12-2024 | 3 | -1% |
| 12-2025 | 4 | 30% |
| 12-2026 | 5 | 20% |
| 12-2027 | 5 | 17% |
| 12-2028 | 6 | 13% |
| 12-2029 | 7 | 12% |
| 12-2030 | 8 | 15% |
| 12-2031 | 9 | 11% |
| 12-2032 | 10 | 10% |
| 12-2033 | 10 | 9% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -239% in 12-2023 to -185% by 12-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | (7) | -239% |
| 12-2024 | (7) | -229% |
| 12-2025 | (8) | -219% |
| 12-2026 | (10) | -210% |
| 12-2027 | (11) | -201% |
| 12-2028 | (12) | -193% |
| 12-2029 | (13) | -191% |
| 12-2030 | (15) | -190% |
| 12-2031 | (16) | -188% |
| 12-2032 | (18) | -186% |
| 12-2033 | (19) | -185% |
with a 5-year average of $1 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 29% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 1 |
| 12-2025 | 1 |
| 12-2026 | 1 |
| 12-2027 | 1 |
| 12-2028 | 1 |
| 12-2029 | 2 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 157 |
| Days Inventory | 58 |
| Days Payables | 75 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2024 | (3) | (0) | 0 | (1) | (3) |
| 2025 | (7) | (0) | 1 | 1 | (9) |
| 2026 | (8) | (0) | 1 | 1 | (10) |
| 2027 | (9) | (0) | 2 | 0 | (10) |
| 2028 | (10) | (0) | 2 | 1 | (12) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -1577.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -2003.6% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Advicenne SA (ALDVI.PA) a buy or a sell? Advicenne SA is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Advicenne SA (ALDVI.PA) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -2003.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $1.72.