As of May 24, 2025, ALD SA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $6.18, this represents a potential upside of -321.6%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -391.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -321.6% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 4.9% - 13.2% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $18702 million in 12-2023 to $29700 million by 12-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 18702 | 64% |
| 12-2024 | 23733 | 27% |
| 12-2025 | 24418 | 3% |
| 12-2026 | 24737 | 1% |
| 12-2027 | 25743 | 4% |
| 12-2028 | 26258 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 27238 | 4% |
| 12-2030 | 27783 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 28547 | 3% |
| 12-2032 | 29118 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 29700 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 5% in 12-2023 to 11% by 12-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 922 | 5% |
| 12-2024 | 1499 | 6% |
| 12-2025 | 1840 | 8% |
| 12-2026 | 2160 | 9% |
| 12-2027 | 2549 | 10% |
| 12-2028 | 2901 | 11% |
| 12-2029 | 3009 | 11% |
| 12-2030 | 3069 | 11% |
| 12-2031 | 3154 | 11% |
| 12-2032 | 3217 | 11% |
| 12-2033 | 3281 | 11% |
. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 0% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 117 |
| 12-2025 | 139 |
| 12-2026 | 144 |
| 12-2027 | 145 |
| 12-2028 | 114 |
| 12-2029 | 117 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 56 |
| Days Inventory | 16 |
| Days Payables | 46 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2156 | 548 | 108 | 955 | 545 |
| 2025 | 2643 | 672 | 111 | 391 | 1468 |
| 2026 | 3084 | 789 | 113 | (344) | 2526 |
| 2027 | 3617 | 931 | 117 | 300 | 2267 |
| 2028 | 4066 | 1060 | 120 | 109 | 2777 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -391.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -321.6% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is ALD SA (ALD.PA) a buy or a sell? ALD SA is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, ALD SA (ALD.PA) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -321.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $6.18.