What is ALBDM.PA's Intrinsic value?

BD Multi Media SA (ALBDM.PA) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of July 4, 2025, BD Multi Media SA's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $1.59 to $1.59 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Earnings Power Value $1.59 -84.6%

Is BD Multi Media SA (ALBDM.PA) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $10.30, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate BD Multi Media SA's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.0% 3.5%
Equity market risk premium 5.8% 6.8%
Adjusted beta 0.45 0.52
Cost of equity 5.6% 7.6%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 4.5% 8.9%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.01 0.01
After-tax WACC 5.6% 7.5%

Valuation Methods

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $0M
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.5% - 5.6%
Enterprise Value $6M - $8M
Net Debt $0M
Equity Value $6M - $8M
Outstanding Shares 4M
Fair Value $1 - $2
Selected Fair Value $1.59

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $44M
Enterprise Value $45M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 5.25
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.01

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Earnings Power Value 100% $0.16
Weighted Average 100% $1.59

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, BD Multi Media SA's intrinsic value is $1.59, which is approximately 84.6% below the current market price of $10.30.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-64% to -54% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.01)

Given these factors, we believe BD Multi Media SA is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.