As of May 23, 2025, Aberdeen Latin American Income Fund Ltd has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $52.43 per share. With the current market price at $60.25, this represents a potential upside of -13.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $50.41 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $52.43 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -16.3% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -13.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.2% - 11.1% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $3 million in 08-2022 to $4 million by 08-2032, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.9%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 08-2022 | 3 | 55% |
| 08-2023 | 3 | 5% |
| 08-2024 | 3 | 2% |
| 08-2025 | 3 | 3% |
| 08-2026 | 3 | 2% |
| 08-2027 | 3 | 2% |
| 08-2028 | 3 | 2% |
| 08-2029 | 4 | 3% |
| 08-2030 | 4 | 3% |
| 08-2031 | 4 | 4% |
| 08-2032 | 4 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 73% in 08-2022 to 72% by 08-2032, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 08-2022 | 2 | 73% |
| 08-2023 | 2 | 72% |
| 08-2024 | 2 | 72% |
| 08-2025 | 2 | 72% |
| 08-2026 | 2 | 72% |
| 08-2027 | 2 | 72% |
| 08-2028 | 2 | 72% |
| 08-2029 | 3 | 72% |
| 08-2030 | 3 | 72% |
| 08-2031 | 3 | 72% |
| 08-2032 | 3 | 72% |
with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 0% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 08-2023 | 0 |
| 08-2024 | 0 |
| 08-2025 | 0 |
| 08-2026 | 0 |
| 08-2027 | 0 |
| 08-2028 | 0 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 0 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2024 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2027 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 50.41 | -16.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 52.43 | -13.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 25.01 | -58.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 33.79 | -43.9% |
Is Aberdeen Latin American Income Fund Ltd (ALAI.L) a buy or a sell? Aberdeen Latin American Income Fund Ltd is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Aberdeen Latin American Income Fund Ltd (ALAI.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -13.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $60.25.