As of May 29, 2025, Ada SA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $24.06 per share. With the current market price at $18.00, this represents a potential upside of 33.6%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $11.37 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $24.06 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -36.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 33.6% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.4% - 7.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $100 million in 12-2021 to $176 million by 12-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.8%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 100 | 14% |
| 12-2022 | 105 | 5% |
| 12-2023 | 109 | 3% |
| 12-2024 | 114 | 5% |
| 12-2025 | 121 | 6% |
| 12-2026 | 131 | 8% |
| 12-2027 | 142 | 9% |
| 12-2028 | 152 | 7% |
| 12-2029 | 160 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 167 | 4% |
| 12-2031 | 176 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 1% in 12-2021 to 6% by 12-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 1 | 1% |
| 12-2022 | 2 | 1% |
| 12-2023 | 3 | 3% |
| 12-2024 | 4 | 4% |
| 12-2025 | 6 | 5% |
| 12-2026 | 8 | 6% |
| 12-2027 | 8 | 6% |
| 12-2028 | 9 | 6% |
| 12-2029 | 9 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 10 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 10 | 6% |
with a 5-year average of $11 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 13% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 12 |
| 12-2023 | 13 |
| 12-2024 | 15 |
| 12-2025 | 15 |
| 12-2026 | 15 |
| 12-2027 | 16 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 187 |
| Days Inventory | 1 |
| Days Payables | 107 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 14 | 1 | 13 | 0 | (0) |
| 2023 | 17 | 1 | 14 | 3 | (1) |
| 2024 | 21 | 2 | 15 | 2 | 2 |
| 2025 | 24 | 3 | 15 | 2 | 3 |
| 2026 | 26 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 2 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 11.37 | -36.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 24.06 | 33.6% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 15.12 | -16.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 20.40 | 13.3% |
Is Ada SA (ALADA.PA) a buy or a sell? Ada SA is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Ada SA (ALADA.PA) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 33.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $18.00.