As of June 13, 2025, Apartment Investment and Management Co has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $8.35, this represents a potential upside of -180.9%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -322.0% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -180.9% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 4.9% - 6.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $209 million in 12-2024 to $484 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.8%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 209 | 12% |
| 12-2025 | 225 | 8% |
| 12-2026 | 252 | 12% |
| 12-2027 | 277 | 10% |
| 12-2028 | 304 | 10% |
| 12-2029 | 349 | 15% |
| 12-2030 | 358 | 3% |
| 12-2031 | 388 | 8% |
| 12-2032 | 421 | 8% |
| 12-2033 | 451 | 7% |
| 12-2034 | 484 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -46% in 12-2024 to -33% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (96) | -46% |
| 12-2025 | (93) | -41% |
| 12-2026 | (100) | -40% |
| 12-2027 | (105) | -38% |
| 12-2028 | (111) | -36% |
| 12-2029 | (122) | -35% |
| 12-2030 | (124) | -35% |
| 12-2031 | (133) | -34% |
| 12-2032 | (143) | -34% |
| 12-2033 | (152) | -34% |
| 12-2034 | (162) | -33% |
with a 5-year average of $237 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 130% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 269 |
| 12-2026 | 285 |
| 12-2027 | 283 |
| 12-2028 | 307 |
| 12-2029 | 366 |
| 12-2030 | 401 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 11 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 208 | (13) | 219 | (1) | 3 |
| 2026 | 299 | (19) | 327 | 1 | (10) |
| 2027 | 305 | (20) | 360 | 1 | (37) |
| 2028 | 337 | (21) | 396 | 0 | (38) |
| 2029 | 406 | (23) | 453 | 2 | (26) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -322.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -180.9% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 21.14 | 153.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 28.17 | 237.4% |
Is Apartment Investment and Management Co (AIV) a buy or a sell? Apartment Investment and Management Co is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Apartment Investment and Management Co (AIV) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -180.9%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $8.35.