As of June 2, 2025, Airbus SE has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $159.75 per share. With the current market price at $162.08, this represents a potential upside of -1.4%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $126.92 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $159.75 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -21.7% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -1.4% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.7% - 10.3% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $69230 million in 12-2024 to $132270 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 69230 | 6% |
| 12-2025 | 73072 | 6% |
| 12-2026 | 78360 | 7% |
| 12-2027 | 81766 | 4% |
| 12-2028 | 86024 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 92165 | 7% |
| 12-2030 | 100596 | 9% |
| 12-2031 | 110528 | 10% |
| 12-2032 | 114861 | 4% |
| 12-2033 | 124727 | 9% |
| 12-2034 | 132270 | 6% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 6% in 12-2024 to 13% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 4078 | 6% |
| 12-2025 | 5674 | 8% |
| 12-2026 | 7143 | 9% |
| 12-2027 | 8536 | 10% |
| 12-2028 | 10097 | 12% |
| 12-2029 | 11990 | 13% |
| 12-2030 | 13087 | 13% |
| 12-2031 | 14379 | 13% |
| 12-2032 | 14942 | 13% |
| 12-2033 | 16226 | 13% |
| 12-2034 | 17207 | 13% |
with a 5-year average of $2574 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 4% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 2847 |
| 12-2026 | 3132 |
| 12-2027 | 3338 |
| 12-2028 | 3463 |
| 12-2029 | 3518 |
| 12-2030 | 3753 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 37 |
| Days Inventory | 234 |
| Days Payables | 94 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 7093 | 966 | 2343 | 32 | 3752 |
| 2026 | 11519 | 1622 | 3350 | 1350 | 5197 |
| 2027 | 13418 | 1938 | 3496 | 1558 | 6426 |
| 2028 | 15438 | 2292 | 3678 | 893 | 8575 |
| 2029 | 17785 | 2722 | 3940 | 1897 | 9225 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 126.92 | -21.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 159.75 | -1.4% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 176.54 | 8.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 212.30 | 31.0% |
Is Airbus SE (AIR.PA) a buy or a sell? Airbus SE is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Airbus SE (AIR.PA) appears to be fairly valued with upside potential of -1.4%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a hold at the current market price of $162.08.