As of May 23, 2025, L'Air Liquide Societe Anonyme pour l'Etude et l'Exploitation des Procedes Georges Claude SA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $102.42 per share. With the current market price at $185.32, this represents a potential upside of -44.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $103.31 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $102.42 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -44.3% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -44.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.1% - 9.2% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $27058 million in 12-2024 to $35308 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 27058 | 2% |
| 12-2025 | 28414 | 5% |
| 12-2026 | 28982 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 29598 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 30190 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 30794 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 32057 | 4% |
| 12-2031 | 33271 | 4% |
| 12-2032 | 33937 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 34615 | 2% |
| 12-2034 | 35308 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 13% in 12-2024 to 13% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 3441 | 13% |
| 12-2025 | 3613 | 13% |
| 12-2026 | 3685 | 13% |
| 12-2027 | 3764 | 13% |
| 12-2028 | 3839 | 13% |
| 12-2029 | 3916 | 13% |
| 12-2030 | 4076 | 13% |
| 12-2031 | 4231 | 13% |
| 12-2032 | 4315 | 13% |
| 12-2033 | 4402 | 13% |
| 12-2034 | 4490 | 13% |
with a 5-year average of $3148 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 12% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 3322 |
| 12-2026 | 3452 |
| 12-2027 | 3527 |
| 12-2028 | 3592 |
| 12-2029 | 3646 |
| 12-2030 | 3736 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 39 |
| Days Inventory | 66 |
| Days Payables | 94 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8395 | 1141 | 3500 | (155) | 3909 |
| 2026 | 8627 | 1164 | 3570 | 177 | 3716 |
| 2027 | 8812 | 1189 | 3646 | 57 | 3921 |
| 2028 | 8983 | 1212 | 3719 | (0) | 4051 |
| 2029 | 9144 | 1237 | 3793 | 81 | 4033 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 103.31 | -44.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 102.42 | -44.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 127.38 | -31.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 121.54 | -34.4% |
Is L'Air Liquide Societe Anonyme pour l'Etude et l'Exploitation des Procedes Georges Claude SA (AI.PA) a buy or a sell? L'Air Liquide Societe Anonyme pour l'Etude et l'Exploitation des Procedes Georges Claude SA is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, L'Air Liquide Societe Anonyme pour l'Etude et l'Exploitation des Procedes Georges Claude SA (AI.PA) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -44.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $185.32.