As of May 27, 2025, Aleafia Health Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.02, this represents a potential upside of -51884.4%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -35815.0% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -51884.4% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 4.8% - 8.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $43 million in 03-2023 to $396 million by 03-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 24.9%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2023 | 43 | 1% |
| 03-2024 | 78 | 81% |
| 03-2025 | 90 | 16% |
| 03-2026 | 118 | 31% |
| 03-2027 | 149 | 26% |
| 03-2028 | 181 | 22% |
| 03-2029 | 219 | 21% |
| 03-2030 | 258 | 18% |
| 03-2031 | 301 | 17% |
| 03-2032 | 344 | 14% |
| 03-2033 | 396 | 15% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -81% in 03-2023 to -57% by 03-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2023 | (35) | -81% |
| 03-2024 | (58) | -75% |
| 03-2025 | (64) | -71% |
| 03-2026 | (80) | -67% |
| 03-2027 | (95) | -64% |
| 03-2028 | (109) | -60% |
| 03-2029 | (131) | -60% |
| 03-2030 | (152) | -59% |
| 03-2031 | (176) | -58% |
| 03-2032 | (199) | -58% |
| 03-2033 | (226) | -57% |
with a 5-year average of $6 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 27% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 03-2024 | 6 |
| 03-2025 | 11 |
| 03-2026 | 17 |
| 03-2027 | 24 |
| 03-2028 | 33 |
| 03-2029 | 41 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 69 |
| Days Inventory | 172 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | (34) | (1) | 21 | 21 | (75) |
| 2025 | (32) | (1) | 24 | 4 | (59) |
| 2026 | (35) | (1) | 32 | 12 | (78) |
| 2027 | (36) | (2) | 40 | 15 | (90) |
| 2028 | (34) | (2) | 49 | 13 | (93) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -35815.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -51884.4% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Aleafia Health Inc (AH.TO) a buy or a sell? Aleafia Health Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Aleafia Health Inc (AH.TO) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -51884.4%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.02.