As of May 22, 2025, Agilysys Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $69.99 per share. With the current market price at $100.19, this represents a potential upside of -30.1%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $46.42 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $69.99 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -53.7% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -30.1% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.8% - 7.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $237 million in 03-2024 to $660 million by 03-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10.8%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2024 | 237 | 20% |
| 03-2025 | 273 | 15% |
| 03-2026 | 320 | 17% |
| 03-2027 | 362 | 13% |
| 03-2028 | 400 | 11% |
| 03-2029 | 443 | 11% |
| 03-2030 | 480 | 8% |
| 03-2031 | 527 | 10% |
| 03-2032 | 573 | 9% |
| 03-2033 | 614 | 7% |
| 03-2034 | 660 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 36% in 03-2024 to 19% by 03-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2024 | 86 | 36% |
| 03-2025 | 29 | 11% |
| 03-2026 | 40 | 12% |
| 03-2027 | 51 | 14% |
| 03-2028 | 63 | 16% |
| 03-2029 | 77 | 17% |
| 03-2030 | 85 | 18% |
| 03-2031 | 95 | 18% |
| 03-2032 | 105 | 18% |
| 03-2033 | 114 | 19% |
| 03-2034 | 125 | 19% |
with a 5-year average of $4 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 03-2025 | 5 |
| 03-2026 | 6 |
| 03-2027 | 7 |
| 03-2028 | 8 |
| 03-2029 | 8 |
| 03-2030 | 9 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 51 |
| Days Inventory | 35 |
| Days Payables | 47 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2025 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 2026 | 39 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 27 |
| 2027 | 51 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 38 |
| 2028 | 63 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 48 |
| 2029 | 76 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 61 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 46.42 | -53.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 69.99 | -30.1% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 23.29 | -76.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 37.13 | -62.9% |
Is Agilysys Inc (AGYS) a buy or a sell? Agilysys Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Agilysys Inc (AGYS) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -30.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $100.19.