As of December 15, 2025, PlayAGS Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $5.20 to $39.15 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $20.45 | +63.7% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $15.64 | +25.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $5.20 | -58.3% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $18.85 | +50.9% |
| Earnings Power Value | $39.15 | +213.4% |
Is PlayAGS Inc (AGS) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $12.49, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate PlayAGS Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.37 | 0.54 |
| Cost of equity | 5.6% | 7.9% |
| Cost of debt | 7.0% | 7.9% |
| Tax rate | 16.4% | 42.8% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 1.04 | 1.04 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.7% | 6.2% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $16 | $1,146M | 78.4% |
| 10-Year Growth | $20 | $1,345M | 62.5% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $16 | $1,153M | 78.5% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $20 | $1,346M | 62.5% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $126M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.2% - 5.7% |
| Enterprise Value | $2,043M - $2,200M |
| Net Debt | $497M |
| Equity Value | $1,547M - $1,703M |
| Outstanding Shares | 42M |
| Fair Value | $37 - $41 |
| Selected Fair Value | $39.15 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $518M |
| Enterprise Value | $1015M |
| Trailing P/E | 9.45 |
| Forward P/E | 33.07 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 7.10 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 1.04 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $6.13 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $3.91 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $1.04 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $2.83 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $3.91 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $17.83 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, PlayAGS Inc's intrinsic value is $17.83, which is approximately 42.7% above the current market price of $12.49.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe PlayAGS Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.