As of May 27, 2025, Agile Therapeutics Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.60, this represents a potential upside of -40127.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -26680.5% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -40127.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.5% - 6.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $20 million in 12-2023 to $191 million by 12-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 25.3%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 20 | 80% |
| 12-2024 | 38 | 93% |
| 12-2025 | 53 | 41% |
| 12-2026 | 71 | 33% |
| 12-2027 | 85 | 21% |
| 12-2028 | 100 | 17% |
| 12-2029 | 117 | 17% |
| 12-2030 | 135 | 15% |
| 12-2031 | 155 | 15% |
| 12-2032 | 171 | 10% |
| 12-2033 | 191 | 11% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -74% in 12-2023 to -45% by 12-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | (14) | -74% |
| 12-2024 | (20) | -52% |
| 12-2025 | (27) | -51% |
| 12-2026 | (35) | -49% |
| 12-2027 | (41) | -48% |
| 12-2028 | (46) | -46% |
| 12-2029 | (54) | -46% |
| 12-2030 | (62) | -46% |
| 12-2031 | (71) | -46% |
| 12-2032 | (78) | -45% |
| 12-2033 | (86) | -45% |
with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 14% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 1 |
| 12-2025 | 3 |
| 12-2026 | 4 |
| 12-2027 | 7 |
| 12-2028 | 9 |
| 12-2029 | 12 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 104 |
| Days Inventory | 72 |
| Days Payables | 366 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2024 | (18) | (4) | 3 | 0 | (18) |
| 2025 | (49) | (10) | 7 | (2) | (44) |
| 2026 | (63) | (13) | 10 | (1) | (59) |
| 2027 | (73) | (15) | 12 | 2 | (71) |
| 2028 | (82) | (17) | 14 | (0) | (78) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -26680.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -40127.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Agile Therapeutics Inc (AGRX) a buy or a sell? Agile Therapeutics Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Agile Therapeutics Inc (AGRX) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -40127.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.60.