What is AGN.AS's Intrinsic value?

Aegon NV (AGN.AS) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 21, 2025, Aegon NV's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $5.25 to $5.68 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $5.25 -8.6%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $5.68 -1.3%

Is Aegon NV (AGN.AS) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $5.75, the stock appears to be fairly valued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Aegon NV's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 2.6% 3.1%
Equity market risk premium 5.1% 6.1%
Adjusted beta 0.66 1.14
Cost of equity 5.9% 10.5%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 8.4% 26.5%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.5 0.5
After-tax WACC 5.5% 8.2%

Valuation Methods

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 75.7%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 8.2%
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0%
  • Fair value: $5.25 (-8.6% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 10.5% (Low) to 5.9% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5% (Low) to 1.5% (High)
  • Fair value range: $3 to $8
  • Selected fair value: $5.68 (-1.3% from current price)

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $9504M
Enterprise Value $11030M
Trailing P/E 13.81
Forward P/E 13.54
Trailing EV/EBITDA 0.00
Current Dividend Yield 522.93%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 69.58%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.50

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 57% $1.05
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 43% $0.85
Weighted Average 100% $5.43

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Aegon NV's weighted average intrinsic value is $5.43, which is approximately 5.5% below the current market price of $5.75.

Key investment considerations:

  • Historical dividend growth of 69.58%

Given these factors, we believe Aegon NV is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.