As of July 2, 2025, Aggreko PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $218.98 per share. With the current market price at $869.50, this represents a potential upside of -74.8%.
Key Metrics | Value |
---|---|
DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $447.02 |
DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $218.98 |
Potential Upside (5-year) | -48.6% |
Potential Upside (10-year) | -74.8% |
Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.9% - 9.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1365 million in 12-2020 to $0 million by 12-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately -100.0%.
Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
---|---|---|
12-2020 | 1365 | 15% |
12-2021 | 0 | -100% |
12-2022 | (0) | -144% |
12-2023 | 0 | -190% |
12-2024 | 0 | 7% |
12-2025 | 0 | 3% |
12-2026 | 0 | 2% |
12-2027 | 0 | 2% |
12-2028 | 0 | 2% |
12-2029 | 0 | 2% |
12-2030 | 0 | 4% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -8% in 12-2020 to 0% by 12-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
---|---|---|
12-2020 | (111) | -8% |
12-2021 | (0) | 0% |
12-2022 | 0 | 0% |
12-2023 | (0) | 0% |
12-2024 | (0) | 0% |
12-2025 | (0) | 0% |
12-2026 | (0) | 0% |
12-2027 | (0) | 0% |
12-2028 | (0) | 0% |
12-2029 | (0) | 0% |
12-2030 | (0) | 0% |
with a 5-year average of $244 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 15% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
---|---|
12-2021 | 190 |
12-2022 | 135 |
12-2023 | 90 |
12-2024 | 42 |
12-2025 | 0 |
12-2026 | 0 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
Components | Average Days |
---|---|
Days Receivables | 134 |
Days Inventory | 112 |
Days Payables | 59 |
Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2021 | 190 | (0) | 0 | (554) | 744 |
2022 | 135 | 0 | (0) | (0) | 135 |
2023 | 90 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 90 |
2024 | 42 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 42 |
2025 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) |
Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
---|---|---|
5-Year DCF (Growth) | 447.02 | -48.6% |
10-Year DCF (Growth) | 218.98 | -74.8% |
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 262.86 | -69.8% |
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 218.98 | -74.8% |
Is Aggreko PLC (AGK.L) a buy or a sell? Aggreko PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Aggreko PLC (AGK.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -74.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $869.50.