As of June 9, 2025, AgroFresh Solutions Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $4.34 to $30.99 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $7.34 | +144.6% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $4.34 | +44.6% |
| Earnings Power Value | $30.99 | +933.1% |
Is AgroFresh Solutions Inc (AGFS) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $3.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate AgroFresh Solutions Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.33 | 0.58 |
| Cost of equity | 5.4% | 8.1% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 21.0% | 48.9% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| After-tax WACC | 4.5% | 4.7% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $3 | $371M | 84.8% |
| 10-Year Growth | $6 | $514M | 75.1% |
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $86M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 4.7% - 4.5% |
| Enterprise Value | $1,831M - $1,906M |
| Net Debt | $203M |
| Equity Value | $1,627M - $1,703M |
| Outstanding Shares | 54M |
| Fair Value | $30 - $32 |
| Selected Fair Value | $30.99 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $161M |
| Enterprise Value | $365M |
| Trailing P/E | 0.00 |
| Forward P/E | -4.80 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 7.20 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 659.06% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 1.60 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 46% | $2.20 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 38% | $1.08 |
| Earnings Power Value | 15% | $3.10 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $9.82 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, AgroFresh Solutions Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $9.82, which is approximately 227.5% above the current market price of $3.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe AgroFresh Solutions Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.