As of May 22, 2025, Amiad Water Systems Ltd's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $130.09 to $481.77 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $481.77 | +32.4% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $414.80 | +14.0% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $290.04 | -20.3% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $130.09 | -64.3% |
| Earnings Power Value | $229.72 | -36.9% |
Is Amiad Water Systems Ltd (AFS.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $364.00, the stock appears to be fairly valued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Amiad Water Systems Ltd's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 2.9% | 3.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.3% | 6.3% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.69 | 0.75 |
| Cost of equity | 6.6% | 8.7% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 5.3% |
| Tax rate | 20.5% | 22.0% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.9% | 7.8% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $505 | $143M | 82.5% |
| 10-Year Growth | $587 | $167M | 66.8% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $325 | $91M | 72.5% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $407 | $115M | 51.8% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $5M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.8% - 5.9% |
| Enterprise Value | $68M - $89M |
| Net Debt | $(3)M |
| Equity Value | $70M - $91M |
| Outstanding Shares | 0M |
| Fair Value | $243 - $316 |
| Selected Fair Value | $229.72 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $105M |
| Enterprise Value | $103M |
| Trailing P/E | 186.37 |
| Forward P/E | 29.97 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 6.00 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.25 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $144.53 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $103.70 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $58.01 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $19.51 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $22.97 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $348.72 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Amiad Water Systems Ltd's weighted average intrinsic value is $348.72, which is approximately 4.2% below the current market price of $364.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Amiad Water Systems Ltd is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.