As of May 22, 2025, Amiad Water Systems Ltd has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $481.77 per share. With the current market price at $364.00, this represents a potential upside of 32.4%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $414.80 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $481.77 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 14.0% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 32.4% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.9% - 7.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $105 million in 12-2020 to $147 million by 12-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.4%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 105 | 10% |
| 12-2021 | 116 | 11% |
| 12-2022 | 117 | 1% |
| 12-2023 | 119 | 2% |
| 12-2024 | 121 | 2% |
| 12-2025 | 128 | 6% |
| 12-2026 | 131 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 136 | 4% |
| 12-2028 | 139 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 142 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 147 | 3% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 3% in 12-2020 to 8% by 12-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 4 | 3% |
| 12-2021 | 5 | 4% |
| 12-2022 | 6 | 5% |
| 12-2023 | 7 | 6% |
| 12-2024 | 8 | 7% |
| 12-2025 | 10 | 8% |
| 12-2026 | 10 | 8% |
| 12-2027 | 10 | 8% |
| 12-2028 | 11 | 8% |
| 12-2029 | 11 | 8% |
| 12-2030 | 11 | 8% |
with a 5-year average of $3 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 4 |
| 12-2022 | 4 |
| 12-2023 | 4 |
| 12-2024 | 4 |
| 12-2025 | 4 |
| 12-2026 | 4 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 110 |
| Days Inventory | 159 |
| Days Payables | 79 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 7 | (1) |
| 2022 | 12 | 2 | 4 | (1) | 8 |
| 2023 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 2024 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 |
| 2025 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 8 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 414.80 | 14.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 481.77 | 32.4% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 244.88 | -32.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 306.12 | -15.9% |
Is Amiad Water Systems Ltd (AFS.L) a buy or a sell? Amiad Water Systems Ltd is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Amiad Water Systems Ltd (AFS.L) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 32.4%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $364.00.