As of May 23, 2025, American Finance Trust Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.67 per share. With the current market price at $8.23, this represents a potential upside of -91.9%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.67 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -112.5% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -91.9% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 4.9% - 9.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $305 million in 12-2020 to $574 million by 12-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 305 | 2% |
| 12-2021 | 331 | 8% |
| 12-2022 | 357 | 8% |
| 12-2023 | 394 | 10% |
| 12-2024 | 429 | 9% |
| 12-2025 | 439 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 456 | 4% |
| 12-2027 | 494 | 8% |
| 12-2028 | 520 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 550 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 574 | 4% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -10% in 12-2020 to -3% by 12-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | (32) | -10% |
| 12-2021 | (22) | -7% |
| 12-2022 | (21) | -6% |
| 12-2023 | (19) | -5% |
| 12-2024 | (17) | -4% |
| 12-2025 | (14) | -3% |
| 12-2026 | (14) | -3% |
| 12-2027 | (15) | -3% |
| 12-2028 | (15) | -3% |
| 12-2029 | (15) | -3% |
| 12-2030 | (15) | -3% |
with a 5-year average of $223 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 77% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 268 |
| 12-2022 | 291 |
| 12-2023 | 302 |
| 12-2024 | 280 |
| 12-2025 | 302 |
| 12-2026 | 321 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 0 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2021 | 81 | (2) | 64 | 0 | 19 |
| 2022 | 355 | (8) | 276 | 0 | 86 |
| 2023 | 377 | (7) | 305 | 0 | 79 |
| 2024 | 366 | (6) | 332 | 0 | 40 |
| 2025 | 395 | (5) | 340 | 0 | 60 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -112.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.67 | -91.9% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 17.85 | 116.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 17.68 | 114.8% |
Is American Finance Trust Inc (AFIN) a buy or a sell? American Finance Trust Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, American Finance Trust Inc (AFIN) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -91.9%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $8.23.