What is AEX.L's DCF valuation?

Aminex PLC (AEX.L) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 29, 2025, Aminex PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $1.25, this represents a potential upside of -112.8%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $0.00
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $0.00
Potential Upside (5-year) -112.9%
Potential Upside (10-year) -112.8%
Discount Rate (WACC) 5.1% - 6.4%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
12-2023 0 75%
12-2024 0 -74%
12-2025 0 2%
12-2026 0 2%
12-2027 0 4%
12-2028 0 4%
12-2029 0 2%
12-2030 0 2%
12-2031 0 2%
12-2032 0 2%
12-2033 0 2%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from -999% in 12-2023 to -29% by 12-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
12-2023 (1) -999%
12-2024 (0) -23%
12-2025 (0) -24%
12-2026 (0) -24%
12-2027 (0) -25%
12-2028 (0) -26%
12-2029 (0) -27%
12-2030 (0) -27%
12-2031 (0) -28%
12-2032 (0) -28%
12-2033 (0) -29%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $1 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 477% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
12-2024 1
12-2025 0
12-2026 0
12-2027 0
12-2028 0
12-2029 0

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 9,193
Days Inventory 0
Days Payables 5,691

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
6M/2024 0 (0) 0 1 (1)
2025 0 (0) 0 (0) 0
2026 (0) (0) 0 (0) (0)
2027 (0) (0) 0 0 (0)
2028 (0) (0) 0 (0) (0)

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 5.1% - 6.4%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 3.0% - 4.9%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 2.1x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -112.9%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -112.8%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.06 -95.1%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.04 -96.8%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $(14)M
  • 10-Year Model: $(14)M

Investment Conclusion

Is Aminex PLC (AEX.L) a buy or a sell? Aminex PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Aminex PLC (AEX.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -112.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Expanding profit margins (from -999% to -29%)
  • Strong free cash flow generation

Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $1.25.