As of May 22, 2025, Aerie Pharmaceuticals Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $15.25, this represents a potential upside of -496.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -516.7% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -496.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.3% - 7.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $194 million in 12-2021 to $419 million by 12-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.0%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 194 | 134% |
| 12-2022 | 165 | -15% |
| 12-2023 | 236 | 43% |
| 12-2024 | 252 | 7% |
| 12-2025 | 275 | 9% |
| 12-2026 | 293 | 7% |
| 12-2027 | 317 | 8% |
| 12-2028 | 334 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 356 | 7% |
| 12-2030 | 384 | 8% |
| 12-2031 | 419 | 9% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -39% in 12-2021 to -34% by 12-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | (75) | -39% |
| 12-2022 | (62) | -37% |
| 12-2023 | (86) | -37% |
| 12-2024 | (90) | -36% |
| 12-2025 | (97) | -35% |
| 12-2026 | (102) | -35% |
| 12-2027 | (110) | -35% |
| 12-2028 | (116) | -35% |
| 12-2029 | (123) | -35% |
| 12-2030 | (132) | -34% |
| 12-2031 | (144) | -34% |
with a 5-year average of $13 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 37% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 22 |
| 12-2023 | 33 |
| 12-2024 | 50 |
| 12-2025 | 70 |
| 12-2026 | 91 |
| 12-2027 | 102 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 192 |
| Days Inventory | 845 |
| Days Payables | 402 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2022 | (4) | (0) | 15 | 3 | (22) |
| 2023 | (19) | (1) | 88 | 40 | (146) |
| 2024 | (4) | (1) | 94 | (2) | (95) |
| 2025 | 13 | (1) | 103 | 22 | (111) |
| 2026 | 32 | (1) | 109 | 7 | (84) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -516.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -496.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Aerie Pharmaceuticals Inc (AERI) a buy or a sell? Aerie Pharmaceuticals Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Aerie Pharmaceuticals Inc (AERI) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -496.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $15.25.