What is AEF's DCF valuation?

Aberdeen Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund Inc (AEF) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 29, 2025, Aberdeen Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $5.47, this represents a potential upside of -137.8%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $0.00
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $0.00
Potential Upside (5-year) -140.0%
Potential Upside (10-year) -137.8%
Discount Rate (WACC) 9.5% - 12.0%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Revenue is projected to grow from $10 million in 12-2023 to $13 million by 12-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.7%.

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
12-2023 10 15%
12-2024 10 5%
12-2025 11 2%
12-2026 11 2%
12-2027 11 2%
12-2028 11 2%
12-2029 12 2%
12-2030 12 2%
12-2031 12 2%
12-2032 13 4%
12-2033 13 2%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from 294% in 12-2023 to 226% by 12-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
12-2023 29 294%
12-2024 23 216%
12-2025 23 219%
12-2026 24 220%
12-2027 25 222%
12-2028 25 224%
12-2029 26 224%
12-2030 27 225%
12-2031 27 225%
12-2032 28 225%
12-2033 29 226%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 0% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
12-2024 0
12-2025 0
12-2026 0
12-2027 0
12-2028 0
12-2029 0

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 0
Days Inventory 0
Days Payables 54

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
2024 4 8 0 (0) (4)
2025 4 9 0 0 (4)
2026 5 9 0 (0) (4)
2027 5 9 0 (0) (4)
2028 5 9 0 0 (4)

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 9.5% - 12.0%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 24.7x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -140.0%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -137.8%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.60 -89.1%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $(54)M
  • 10-Year Model: $(49)M

Investment Conclusion

Is Aberdeen Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund Inc (AEF) a buy or a sell? Aberdeen Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Aberdeen Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund Inc (AEF) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -137.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Steady revenue growth (2.7% CAGR)
  • Strong free cash flow generation

Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $5.47.