As of June 22, 2025, Autodesk Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $160.82 per share. With the current market price at $297.21, this represents a potential upside of -45.9%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $130.50 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $160.82 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -56.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -45.9% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.6% - 10.1% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $6131 million in 01-2025 to $14374 million by 01-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.9%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2025 | 6131 | 12% |
| 01-2026 | 6996 | 14% |
| 01-2027 | 7739 | 11% |
| 01-2028 | 8128 | 5% |
| 01-2029 | 8980 | 10% |
| 01-2030 | 9794 | 9% |
| 01-2031 | 10346 | 6% |
| 01-2032 | 11306 | 9% |
| 01-2033 | 12478 | 10% |
| 01-2034 | 13435 | 8% |
| 01-2035 | 14374 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 18% in 01-2025 to 20% by 01-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2025 | 1112 | 18% |
| 01-2026 | 1295 | 19% |
| 01-2027 | 1461 | 19% |
| 01-2028 | 1562 | 19% |
| 01-2029 | 1755 | 20% |
| 01-2030 | 1944 | 20% |
| 01-2031 | 2060 | 20% |
| 01-2032 | 2258 | 20% |
| 01-2033 | 2499 | 20% |
| 01-2034 | 2698 | 20% |
| 01-2035 | 2895 | 20% |
with a 5-year average of $74 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 01-2026 | 77 |
| 01-2027 | 87 |
| 01-2028 | 103 |
| 01-2029 | 119 |
| 01-2030 | 129 |
| 01-2031 | 139 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 63 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 101 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2026 | 1246 | 238 | 81 | 198 | 729 |
| 2027 | 1875 | 357 | 120 | 53 | 1345 |
| 2028 | 2016 | 382 | 126 | 58 | 1449 |
| 2029 | 2268 | 429 | 139 | 160 | 1539 |
| 2030 | 2510 | 476 | 152 | 111 | 1772 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 130.50 | -56.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 160.82 | -45.9% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 274.67 | -7.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 304.98 | 2.6% |
Is Autodesk Inc (ADSK) a buy or a sell? Autodesk Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Autodesk Inc (ADSK) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -45.9%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $297.21.